24 LONGISLANDPRESS.COM • NOVEMBER 2021
RETAIL RECOVERING, ALTHOUGH PRE-PANDEMIC HEIGHTS REMAIN ELUSIVE
continued from page 23
“We anticipate strong consumer spending
for the upcoming holiday season,”
says Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S.
economic forecaster, citing rising vaccination
rates which will likely lead
to “increased spending on services,
including restaurants and travel.”
Expect e-commerce sales to “continue to
grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing
and steady movement toward buying
online across all categories,” Bachman
says of a retail landscape with a little less
competition, due to empty stores.
Consumer spending on Halloween-related
items was expected to reach an
all-time high of $10.14 billion, up from
$8.05 billion in 2020, according to
the National Retail Federation’s forecast.
“Americans plan to spend more
than ever to make this Halloween a
memorable one,” NRF President and
CEO Matthew Shay said of pent-up
demand. He added that amid lingering
supply concerns, retailers in this
new not entirely normal brought in
Halloween products earlier to ensure
shelves were stocked with seasonal
goods ahead of the holiday.
Things are improving locally despite
inflation, but we’re still far from
pre-pandemic heights in terms of jobs
and in retail, specifically. Nonfarm
employment on Long Island (jobs physically
located here) was down 119,100
or 8.8 percent as of August 2021 from
pre-pandemic August 2019.
The leisure and hospitality sector on
Long Island, “the hardest hit during
the pandemic,” is still 29,400, or 20.4%
below pre-pandemic levels, said Shital
Patel, principal economist and labor
market analyst for Long Island at the
New York State Department of Labor.
Employment at restaurants remains
17.2% below pre-pandemic levels, she said.
“The retail sector has fared a bit better
compared to leisure and hospitality, but
the recovery has been uneven,” Patel
said, noting retail employment is 10.8%
below pre-pandemic levels.
“Building material and garden equipment
stores, like Home Depot and
Lowe’s, have regained all the jobs lost
during the pandemic and employment
is currently above pre-pandemic levels,”
she said.
These stores benefi tted from consumers
“spending more time at home
and renovating and upgrading
their living spaces,” Patel said. P.C.
Richard and Son added interactive
Smart Home Departments with Wi-
Fi thermostats, video doorbells, and
much more, seeking to ride the home
high-tech boom.
At the other end of the spectrum, employment
on Long Island at clothing
and clothing accessories stores, which
Patel said “were already struggling
prior to the pandemic,” remains 25.3%
below pre-pandemic levels.
E-commerce is soaring with brickand
mortar retailers relying more
on clicks as delivery rockets. The
courier and messenger industry,
which includes companies to which
e-commerce retailers outsource
local delivery, has grown by 27.9%
over the last two years, Patel said.
Long Island’s 5.1% August unemployment
rate was nearly half of the 9.7%
during the height of the pandemic,
but above the 3.8% in August 2019.
If “Help Wanted” signs make it seem
that fewer people are working or
seeking work, data bears that out.
Long Island’s labor force shrank 3.6%
from pre-pandemic levels.
“While we don’t have details on who has
been exiting the labor force, there are
many issues at play,” Patel said. “Childcare
and eldercare issues as well as lingering
fears of the virus and the Delta
variant continue to keep many on the
sidelines. The region’s older workers
may also be retiring in larger numbers.”
While the times are changing, so
are shopping patterns, which are
different from pre-pandemic trends.
Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte
LLP and U.S. retail and distribution
sector leader, said “pandemic-influenced
shopping behaviors continue
to gain traction.” Convenience as
well as delivery may be king.
Retailers who respond to “shifting
consumer behaviors and offer
convenient options for online and
in-store shopping, as well as order
fulfillment,” Sides said, “will be
poised for growth this holiday season,
and into the new year.”
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