Climate Change with eight billion humans
By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Nov 23 2021
(IPS) – With world population
approaching 8 billion humans,
the demographic growth of
nations is unfortunately largely
ignored by governments whenever
climate change is considered.
Government leaders at COP26,
for example, did not address
limiting the global demand for
energy, water, food, housing,
land, resources, material goods,
machinery, transportation, etc.
by reducing the growth of their
respective human populations.
By and large, the officials as well
as their economic advisors are
not prepared to acknowledge
that population stabilization
and degrowth are essential for
addressing climate change.
Moreover, many countries,
including Canada, China, European
Union members, Iran, Israel,
Japan, Russia, South Korea
and the United States, continue
to push for the further growth
of their populations. China, for
example, has moved from a onechild
policy to a three-child policy
to increase its population of more
than 1.4 billion.
Russia has adopted a number
of policies to increase its low
birth rate, including maternity
capital program, Procreation Day,
state funding for new mothers,
welfare benefits to families with
young children and tax breaks
for larger families. The United
States relies heavily on immigration,
more than one million
immigrants annually, to increase
its population, which is projected
to reach 400 million by around
midcentury.
Rather than immigration,
most European Union Members
aim to increase their populations
by raising below replacement fertility
levels. The mood in many
parts of Europe is reflected in
the German poster saying: “Wir
können unsere eigenen Babys
machen, wir brauchen keine Ausländer”
Contributing Writers: Azad Ali, Tangerine Clarke,
Nelson King, Vinette K. Pryce, Bert Wilkinson
GENERAL INFORMATION (718) 260-2500
Caribbean L 10 ife, NOV. 26-DEC. 2, 2021
(We can make our own
babies, we don’t need foreigners).
Hungary, in particular, has
been outspoken in its opposition
to immigration and foreigners,
and straightforward in its
policies, programs and financial
incentives aimed at helping Hungarians
have all the babies they
want.
Also, Iran recently adopted a
bill that limits sterilization, abortion
and free distribution of contraceptives
in the public health
care system unless a pregnancy
threatens a woman’s health, all
aimed at raising its birth rate and
increasing its population of 85
million by tens of millions over
the coming decades. And Israel
promotes population growth of
its Jewish population and expansion
of settlements as a prerequisite
for security and economic
development and its current
population of 8.7 million could
increase to 15 million by 2050.
Throughout most of human
history demographic growth was
relatively slow. The rapid growth
of world population is relatively
recent, having occurred largely
during the second half of the
20th century with record breaking
rates of growth and population
increases. World population
reached 1 billion around 1804,
doubled to 2 billion in 1927, doubled
again to 4 billion in 1974 and
will double again to 8 billion by
2023 (Figure 1).
World population’s 10 billion
mark is expected to occur around
mid-century, with much of the
growth taking place in less developed
countries. Africa’s current
population of about 1.4 billion,
for example, is expected to double
to 2.8 billion by 2056. Particularly
noteworthy, Nigeria’s population,
which increased more than
fivefold over the past 70 years, is
projected to double again, reaching
423 million by around midcentury
and displacing the United
States as the world’s third largest
population.
It’s time to end the charade
and acknowledge the disastrous
consequences of a world with 8
billion humans is having on climate
change. For example, based
on the performance to date of
Brazil, China, the European
Union, India, Japan, Russia, the
United States, the top 7 emitters
of greenhouse gas emissions
accounting for nearly two-thirds
of global emissions and half of
the world’s population, the world
is unlikely to achieve the goals
needed to address climate change
nor respond effectively to environmental
degradation and biodiversity
loss.
Additional insight into greenhouse
gas emissions is offered by
per capita comparisons of major
countries. While in 2018 the world
average of tons of CO2 equivalent
per person was approximately 6,
the United States and Russia had
the highest per person levels of 19
and 18, respectively. The per person
levels for the world’s billionaire
plus populations, China and
India, were considerably lower at
about 8 and 2, respectively.
It also appears unlikely that
the world will achieve the global
goal adopted by 196 parties
in 2015 in the legally binding
international treaty on climate
change, the Paris Agreement,
to limit global warming to well
below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees
Celsius, compared to pre-industrial
levels. Moreover, to preserve
a livable climate on the planet,
the world community of nations
will not likely be able to reduce
greenhouse-gas emissions net 0
by 2050.
While it is widely recognized
that climate change is a global
emergency, the international system
of nations is failing to deal
with this challenge as well as
related global problems due to
national ambitions. To effectively
address this failing, some believe
that a new worldview of planetary
politics is called for, with
the survival of the biosphere to
be designated an international
objective relevant to all nations.
However, moving away from the
primacy of national sovereignty
to a planetary approach appears
unlikely any time soon.
One significant demographic
response to climate change is
human migration, both internal
and international. Increasingly,
people are migrating to escape
climate change’s disastrous consequences,
including rising sea
levels, lengthy droughts, deadly
heat, polluted air, devastating
floods, raging wildfires and violent
storms.
The planet is all but guaranteed
to see 5 feet of sea level rise
in the coming decades. This rise
is especially threatening to no
less than a dozen island nations,
including Fiji, Maldives, Marshall
Islands, Micronesia, Seychelles,
Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. In
addition, by the end of the decade
approximately 50 percent of
the world’s population will live in
coastal areas that are exposed to
storms, tsunamis and floods.
Also, exposure to extreme
heat, which has tripled from 1983
to 2016, now impacts roughly a
quarter of the world’s population.
Longer and hotter heat waves
have become a regular feature
of climate change. Low income
communities, especially in developing
countries, are most vulnerable
with more than two-thirds of
global households lacking access
to air conditioning.
Governments will need to
decide on how best to address
climate-induced population displacement,
which is already a
reality for millions worldwide.
Over the next several decades,
tens of millions of “climate
migrants” are expected to be displaced
by extreme heat, droughts,
sea-level rise, or other severe climate
events within and across
countries. Some are calling for a
United Nations special rapporteur
on human rights and climate
change.
Other expected demographic
responses to climate change are
reduced fertility and increased
morbidity and mortality. Hot
weather, for example, can worsen
reproductive health and maternal
health outcomes as well as lead
to later birth rates and harm to
infant survival.
Also, climate change is considered
the single biggest health
threat facing the world’s 8 billion
humans. Changes in the planet’s
climate are expected to have serious
consequences on the social,
economic and environmental
determinants of health, including
air, water, food and shelter.
WHO reports that between
2030 and 2050, climate change is
expected to cause 250 thousand
additional deaths annually from
malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea
and heat stress. Also, others estimate
that global warming could
lead to the premature deaths of
more than 80 million people over
the remainder of the century.
Whenever climate change is
discussed, written about, or mentioned,
the demographic growth
of nations can no longer be
ignored or dismissed by governments.
The planet with 8 billion
humans and continuing to grow
must be seriously addressed in
climate change negotiations.
In brief, the stabilization and
degrowth of human populations
are essential for limiting the everincreasing
demographic created
demands for energy, water, food,
land, resources, housing, heating/
cooling, transportation, material
goods, etc. that are responsible
for the planet’s climate change,
environmental degradation and
biodiversity loss.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting
demographer, a former director
of the United Nations Population
Division and author of numerous
publications on population
issues, including his recent book,
“Births, Deaths, Migrations and
Other Important Population Matters.”
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