JANUARY 2018 • LONGISLANDPRESS.COM 31
LI EYE
Everyone who wants a job has
got one. True or false?
By WARREN STRUGATCH
The regional economy chugged
along quietly in 2017, gaining
steam as the year ended. With
an October unemployment rate
of 4.1 percent – exactly half the
January 2010 peak – the regional
economy effectively reached full
employment. In theory, this means
everybody in Nassau and Suffolk
who wants a job has got one.
Believe that if you like. Job creation
and wage growth, on the other
hand, have been tepid. So why is
unemployment so low?
Usually that happens when people
stop looking for work, settle for
low-paying McJobs, or move out
of the area to find opportunities
elsewhere. We’re not at full
employment because employers are
creating jobs. They simply aren’t.
In November, job expansion was
effectively zero.
A review of the past year reveals
a labor market that’s growing in
terms of employment efficiency
– closing the gap between jobs
and job seekers – but one that’s
shrinking in terms of wage growth
and employment expansion.
The Long Island job creation story
is not a happy tale. The region
is losing jobs rapidly, about 900
in 2017. Jobs in construction,
trade and manufacturing led the
exodus as 600 private-sector jobs
evaporated between September and
October alone.
Pink slips went out to many office
administrators, temporary health
service workers, travel agents, store
workers and waste management
workers, among other occupations.
Anecdotally, many of those
displaced found lower-paying, parttime
jobs and have doubled up to
make ends meet.
We did see job growth, however,
in education and health services
– nearly 10,000 new jobs there –
and leisure and hospitality, which
added some 1,500 new positions.
While those jobs include highpaying
professions like school
superintendents and hotel general
managers and surgeons, the
majority are make-do gigs: home
healthcare attendants, pre-school
staffers and motel housekeepers.
In March, the New York State
Department of Labor announced
the region’s top five trending jobs
for 2017, naming 5 occupations
growing in both demand and
average wages. Those positions,
followed by their average salaries,
are:
• Software developers/applications
($93,660)
• Physical therapists ($91,230)
• Registered nurses ($86,940)
• Plumbers, pipefitters and
steamfitters ($78,610)
• Market research analysts and
marketing specialists ($68,590)
It used to be that LI’s most
competitive jobs paid significant
differentials over similar work
around the country. Considered
a kind of regional bonus pay, that
differential would offset our high
cost of living. That is no longer the
case.
The differential has been shrinking.
About two years ago it disappeared
altogether. One study by the
Rausch Foundation showed that
the average Long Island paycheck
dropped about 3.2 percent since
2010, based on 2013 dollars.
The difference is starkest when
compared with national wage
levels. In the decade beginning
2005, average LI pay was lower at
the onset of 2014 than it was in
2005, while the average U.S. wage
earner earned about 8.3 percent
more.
Here’s another perspective.
In 2005, the Island’s average
employee earned 9.3 percent
above the national average; in
2014, that advantage had albeit
disappeared. While many hourly
workers still out-earn their
counterparts around the country,
quite a number of managerial
and professional jobs in this
market pay less – sometimes
significantly less.
What’s more, the trend is
downwards. That $93,660
software-developer salary the
Labor Department touts pays
about $11,000 more in the average
community – and much more in
highly competitive markets like
New York, San Francisco and
Boston.
Compounding the problem is our
high cost of living. Living here
costs about 50 percent more than
it does to live in the average U.S.
community. According to some
indicators the cost differential is
rising, driven by the usual twin
gremlins: housing and local taxes.
As Rausch reported in 2015:
“Given that Long Island is a ‘high
cost’ region, the convergence
with national income levels does
not reflect well on the ability of
Long Islanders to maintain living
standards.”
Put another way: we’re working
harder to earn the same or less;
our costs are going up while people
in other markets are easing up,
earning more and paying less to
live there.
Let’s hope 2018 brings better
economic news.
PRESS BUSINESS
“Long Islanders are working harder
and our costs are rising. Meanwhile
people in other markets are
earning more and paying less.”