By Isabel Ortiz
NEW YORK, Dec. 22, 2020
(IPS) – The year 2020 is ending
with the world caught up
in an unprecedented human
and economic crisis. The pandemic
has contaminated 75
million people and killed 1.7
million. With the lockdowns,
the global economy has suffered
the worst recession in
75 years, causing the loss of
income for millions of people.
In such a bleak environment,
what will the new year bring?
Whilst uncertainty is the only
certainty, eight points are
likely to be key in the year
ahead:
1. A gradual but
uneven recovery
With the deployment of
vaccines and public support,
high-income countries will
be on the path to recovery
from the second half of 2021.
However, middle income and
particularly low income countries
in Africa, Asia and Latin
America will see recovery
delayed – unless the UN or
China provide them with sufficient
COVID19 vaccines and
governments escalate public
support. The more affected
sectors – tourism, travel, hospitality,
entertainment and
labor intensive activities –
will take longer to recover.
China was the only country
that experienced significant
economic growth in 2020
and that trend will accelerate
in 2021. International trade
will rebound, but it will be
a more “deglobalized” world,
with diminished global supply
chains and more local components.
2. More poverty and inequality
in 2021
The World in 2021
While a few have benefited
from the pandemic such as
online shops, remote tools/
software, pharmaceuticals and
medical services – the majority
have not. The International
Labour Organization (ILO)
estimates that 590 million
full-time jobs were lost during
the last half of 2020. Numerous
social protection measures
have been implemented,
but these are insufficient and
poverty is increasing in all
countries. With forty percent
of the world population (3.3
billion people) living below the
international poverty line of
5.5 dollars per day, the World
Bank estimates that 150 million
additional people will fall
into extreme poverty by 2021.
More public support and progressive
Contributing Writers: Azad Ali, Tangerine Clarke,
George Alleyne, Nelson King,
Vinette K. Pryce, Bert Wilkinson
GENERAL INFORMATION (718) 260-2500
Caribbean Life, D 10 ECEMBER 25-31, 2020
taxation are needed
to redress these trends. However,
so far large corporations
have benefited most from the
trillions of dollars of COVID19
financial relief and assistance
programs, contributing to
growing inequalities. Poverty
and inequalities will lead to
more protests in 2021.
3. More public health
but unnecessary
austerity cuts
A positive aspect of the
pandemic is that the world
has realized the need for public
health systems – generally
overburdened, underfunded
and understaffed after a decade
of austerity (2010-20).
While public health expenditure
will continue to rise,
many are concerned about
the threat of new austerity
cuts. The unforeseen costs
of the pandemic have caused
unprecedented levels of debt
and fiscal deficits, and governments
may resort to austerity
cuts and reforms to public
services, instead of looking at
alternatives to increase budgets
such as wealth taxation,
fighting tax evasion and illicit
financial flows. Governments
choosing austerity in 2021
should expect protests and
social unrest, given the negative
social impacts.
4. Digitalization and
changes in the world
of work
The pandemic has accelerated
technological change
at the workplace. More telework
and less office time
will prevent women from having
to choose between work
and family and make fathers
more involved in household
responsibilities. Studies suggest
that 47 percent of US
companies will let employees
work from home full-time
after the pandemic. On the
other hand, essential workers
such as health workers,
cleaning staff, delivery drivers
or retail employees, will
have more bargaining power
in 2021, can press harder for
better working conditions.
5. Redressing world
disorder
US President-elect Biden
will renew multilateralism,
the Paris treaty and other
international agreements, the
defense of human rights and
the interests of the Pax Americana.
The UN will continue
to struggle given low financing.
Four years of Trumpism
and fake news have left their
mark upon the world, and
despite democratic attempts
to improve world order, 2021
will not yet see a reversal of
the trend towards authoritarian
nationalist governments
– for this, more efforts will
be needed to fight polarization,
inequality and disinformation.
Jihadism will continue
to increase in Africa and
South Asia.
6. An opportunity on
climate change
The world would need to
replicate the emissions reductions
seen in 2020 during the
next decade to curb global
warming to 1.5 degrees by
the end of the century. However,
low oil prices may delay
investment in alternative
energy sources in 2021, even
though these will replace fossil
fuels in much of the world
in the medium-term.
7. The risk of a new
financial crisis will
remain high in 2021
With industry and services
stagnant, investments went
to the under-regulated financial
sector, where greater
profits were to be made from
speculation. Stock markets
will remain volatile but likely
buoyant, de-linked from the
real economy. However, rising
bankruptcies means that
banking risks will increase
significantly in 2021.
8. A new roaring 20s
After a year of lockdowns,
people will want to make up
for lost time and rush to parties,
dinners, festivals, shows,
sports and travel as soon as
possible. The year 2021 may
well flourish into a new summer
of love, a creative existential
time – carpe diem!
The debate on the possible
ways out of the current crisis
will continue throughout the
year. This is an unprecedented
crisis that still could have
new turns, and governments
are learning by doing. Overall,
there are two options.
One is the restoration of neoliberal
policies, austerity and
minimal public services eroding
welfare, with limited taxation
to the wealthy, that will
lead to more inequality and
social unrest. The other is a
more democratic and socially
progressive route, where public
policies deliver to citizens,
including equitable job-creating
economic policies with
social protection, financed
by progressive taxation, the
elimination of tax evasion
and illicit financial flows. The
coronavirus crisis could be
turned into an opportunity to
make the world a better, fairer
place for all in 2021.
Isabel Ortiz, Director of the
Global Social Justice Program
at the Initiative for Policy
Dialogue at Columbia University,
was Director of the International
Labor Organization
and UNICEF, and a senior
official at the United Nations
and the Asian Development
Bank.
OP-EDS
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR are welcome from all readers. They should be addressed care of this newspaper to the Editor,
Caribbean-Life Publications, 1 MetroTech Center North, Brooklyn, New York 11201, or sent via e-mail to caribbeanlife@
schnepsmedia.com. All letters, including those submitted via e-mail, MUST be signed and the individual’s verifiable address
and telephone number included. Note that the address and telephone number will NOT be published and the name will
be published or withheld on request. No unsigned letters can be accepted for publication. The editor reserves the right to
edit all submissions.
Founded 1990 • Published by Brooklyn Courier Life LLC
Corporate Headquarters: One Metrotech Center North, Suite 1001, Brooklyn, NY 11201
PRESIDENT & PUBLISHER: Victoria Schneps-Yunis
CEO & CO-PUBLISHER: Joshua Schneps
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER: Ralph D’Onofrio
EDITOR EMERITUS: Kenton Kirby
ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Kevin Williams
This newspaper is not responsible for typographical errors in ads beyond the cost of the space occupied
by the error. All rights reserved. Copyright© 2020 by Brooklyn Courier Life LLC. Caribbean
Life is protected by Federal copyright law. Each issue of Caribbean Life is registered with the Library
of Congress, Washington, D.C. The Caribbean Life, its advertisements, articles and photographs, may
not be reproduced, either in whole or part, without permission in writing from the publisher except
brief portions for purposes of review or commentary consistent with the law.
Isabel Ortiz. IPS
/schnepsmedia.com
