when a Parisian
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REAL ESTATE
with Robert Whalen
Robert Whalen
EVP, Managing Director
of Sales
Licensed
Real Estate Broker
t. 718.878.1801
c. 212.674.3373
Brown Harris Stevens
Queens, LLC
47-12 Vernon Blvd., Long
Island City, NY 11101
Residential buyers run the risk of
missing out on the best deals by sitting
on the sidelines waiting for the market
“to hit bottom.” Problem is, by the time
buyers think the market has reached
the bottom, it’s most likely already on
the way back up.
Public records on sales across the
city – which are published monthly by
the city in its Rolling Sales Data – lag
by one month. Further, the reported
sales for the most part are full of deals
that were made 45 to 60 days earlier.
So, the information that is available
here often lags a full quarter behind
the actual, current market conditions.
New Yorkers are keenly interested
in the market, and even the most
casual market watchers have opinions
about where things stand and where
things are going. Some have a great
sense of what’s going on; many more
observers are frequently mistaken.
Barring a significant, unforeseen
macroeconomic event, and assuming
our city, state, and national recovery
from the COVID-19 pandemic
continues on track, I believe the city
real estate market is either rapidly
approaching the bottom or has already
touched down. This is based upon
seeing an increase in buyer inquiries
and the volume of deals that are being
made in real time. This appears to be
the case across the city: Manhattan,
Brooklyn, and Queens.
When someone talks real estate
about “the city,” they’re talking about
Manhattan. Over the past decade,
Manhattan real estate reached its
zenith in 2019, when the average
price of a home was $2.15 million,
according to Brown Harris Stevens
analytics. In pandemic-shutdown
2020, the Manhattan market slipped
about 6 percent, posting an average
price of $2.02 million. Notably, the real
estate market was almost completely
shuttered between March and July.
BHS data shows that so far, year to
date, the average price in Manhattan
is $1.73 million. This is 14.8 percent
beneath the 2019 high point.
Brooklyn needs to be in any
conversation about New York City
real estate. Indeed, Brooklyn prices
are as high as they have ever been.
Over the same period, Brooklyn has
seen its prices rise steadily: $1.02
million in 2019; $1.03 million in 2020;
and, $1.11 million so far in 2021. This
year’s average price is 7.8% higher than
the average in 2019. Likewise, Queens
has also countered the headlines by
reaching its historic highs so far this
year as average sales prices tallied up
at $675,000. This is slightly higher than
the $672,000 average price in 2020,
and about 3.8 percent higher than
the average price in 2019.
Interestingly, Queens’ most
expensive condo market – Long
Island City – tracks more closely to
Manhattan. The average condo price
in LIC has dropped to roughly $1.03
million so far this year from $1.13
million last year and $1.18 million in
2019. This is a decrease of roughly
12.7 percent over the past three years.
The risk lies in misreading the
numbers. Here is what happens when
buyers whiff on market timing: the
most appealing properties get picked
up at a discount. Once the bottom hits,
prices start to go back up. The better
properties are gone, so buyers will pay
more for less. Owners who have the
benefit of time will wait for the prices
to continue to rise before listing.
My advice to buyers trying to time
the market: get with a skilled agent and
go shopping. If you find the home you
want in this market, and with interest
rates this low, get off the sidelines and
take the win.
Feel like talking about this column
or anything else, you can reach me at
rwhalen@bhsusa.com
BUYERS, BEWARE THE
PERILS OF MARKET TIMING 47-Robert
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